By Michael Bratton and Mwangi S. Kimenyi

Do Kenyans vote according to ethnic identities or policy interests? Based on results from the Afrobarometer study conducted in December 2007, this article shows that, while ethnic origins drive voting patterns, elections in Kenya amount to more than a mere ethnic census.

The introduction of multiparty politics to Kenya in 1991 led ruling and opposition parties to quickly splinter according to ethnic groupings. As a result, both the 1992 and 1997 first multiparty elections revolved around ethnic alignments. However, in the 2002 general election, a broad coalition of ethnic groups supported Mwai Kibaki. And a broader overview of African elections – including Kenya ’s December 2007 contest – reveals that voters consider factors other than ethnicity in deciding how to vote.

The article looks at how Kenyans see themselves (mainly in non-ethnic terms); and how they see others (whom they fear will organize politically along ethnic lines). People therefore tend to vote defensively in ethnic blocs, but not exclusively. In this study, they also took particular policy issues into account, including living standards, corruption and majimbo (federalism). The study demonstrates that the relative weight that individuals grant to ethnic and policy voting depends in good part on how they define their group identities.

Download the full report below, or from the Afrobarometer www.afrobarometer.org website.

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